Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Curious Early Fantasy Prep Notes

Just over a month until one of my favorite days of the entire year... WBI Fantasy Draft day. To me, there is no more exciting day in our season (until the day we have a season decided in the last day or two).

Pitchers and catchers have reported. Fantasy baseball magazines have come out of hibernation. ESPN has gone through its regular maintenance and have debuted all their rankings.

It's way too early to have our final draft strategy in place, and yet even if you aren't really hard core about preparing, you know you already have a general idea of some of the players you just must have this year. And that, my friend, is a strategy.

Here are some fun notes, questions, and observations around the fantasy world to wet your whistle.

*First base. It's always been a source of great fantasy hitters. Pujols. Helton. Fielder. Howard. Teixeira. Derek Lee. Morneau. Berkman. Palmeiro. Delgado. Dunn. Giambi. Cabrera. Konerko. Thome. you get the idea.

In ESPN's current rankings for first basement we have a top 10 that has what truly is a DH who is lucky to have 1B eligibility in Billy Butler and two catchers in Buster Posey and Joe Mauer with the same fortune (for us). But Posey and Mauer will likely be used as catchers anyway on our teams because of their production from that scarce position. Pujols is ranked 1st but you get the feeling that it is reluctantly. He's followed by Votto (who had a "down" year) and Fielder who has been incredibly consistent, yet not mind-blowingly amazing.

There are very few bona fide sluggers anymore. Here's a note on that. Pujols in 2009 scored 706 points which would make him an ace starting pitcher let alone hitter. He averaged 4.4 points per game. And get this, he had 700 plate appearances that year. Meaning he averaged scoring a point every single time he walked up to the plate. Yahtzee. Last year's highest scorer was Miggy with 581.

*Steroids. Last year Ryan Braun came into the 2012 draft off an MVP year in which he scored 580 fantasy points and was nearly drafted in the second round (autopick seemed to spare him that history). Why? Because of the suspicion of steroids/PEDs and (a possible) suspension. What did Braun do? Simply score 567 fantasy points, second in WBI for the second year in a row. What will be of Gio Gonzalez, Melky Cabrera, ARod (add on an injury recovery), Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Braun (again) and others as we approach this draft? Who knows? It's hard to say we should draft them anyway based on Braun's performance last year. Have fun with that one.

*Closers. It's hard to succeed in this league without having 2 closers. And yet it's nearly impossible to ever get that position right! Jim Johnson was drafted in the 15th round. Fernando Rodney was not drafted. Aroldis Chapman will be a starter. Mariano Rivera is old. Brian Wilson's beard isn't on any team. Trevor Hoffman has retired. What do we do?

*Shortstop. The #1 ranked shortstop going in to 2013 played under 50 games last year in Troy Tulowitski. Shortstop used to be a position of abundance not too long ago (Reyes, Rollins, Tulo, ARod, Tejada, Renteria, Nomah, Jeter, HanRam, etc.). But now it is the position of potential. Does Rollins still have it in him? Will Tulo stay healthy. Will Hanley Ramirez ever be who he was at the beginning of his career? Will Asdrubal Cabrera mash? Will Starlin Castro add any power to his game? I've heard "the worst thing you can die with is potential." Will we invest the position or not?

*Who do you draft first? A starting pitcher? There are so many out there now, but to get an ace is coveted. Then again, they can be prone to injury and slumps. An outfielder? They are some of the best hitters out there, but the other positions are so scarce? A scarce position like second base or shortstop. The strategy is good on paper, but they tend to score less than some of the best at other positions that you pass up on. And you win the game by scoring the most points, not the most points at one scarce position. And do you change your strategy based on who you do end up drafting first? Oh my. The old adage here is "you can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it." (Although on a personal note, drafting Kevin Youkilis in a terrible year for him still worked out for yours truly two years ago!)

Hopefully you are a little more excited to draft now that I've loaded you with some questions!

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